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Hubble tension

CC-BY-4.0vfr_9caed35d1222c706

id: vfr_9caed35d1222c706
license: CC-BY-4.0
findings: 131
accepted core: 12
contested: 3

131

findings

81

links

127

sources

131

evidence

3

contested

0.83

avg conf

recordoverview state sources proofenginereviewbodygraph

Finding bundle

Metallicity is the dominant source of systematic uncertainty in TRGB distance ladder: a ±0.2 dex error in mean [Fe/H] propagates to ±0.15–0.20 mag distance modulus error (~±7–10% in distance), nearly matching the current Hubble tension magnitude.

2inferred

id: vf_1fa79dc0b965c889
frontier: Hubble tension
version: 1
confidence: 0.89

record state

frontier-owned

Review status

This finding is part of accepted frontier state. Review events, reviewable changes, and proof state explain how it can change.

unreviewed

finding statement

finding type

methodological

No entity list is declared.

evidence

source-bound

1 atoms

theoretical · manual state transition

proof impact

packet context

1 events

1 reviewable changes and 0 evaluation records are attached to this finding id.

Evidence and conditions

method

manual state transition

evidence type

theoretical

conditions

species_unverified
species_verified
text: Spectroscopic metallicity determinations for distant galaxies are expensive and limited to bright stars; photometric metallicity estimates from color indices carry their own systematic errors

Provenance

source title

Salaris & Cassisi (2005) stellar evolution models; Bellazzini et al. (1999, 2004) metallicity sensitivity studies

authors

reviewer:will-blair

Source records

1

source record

Salaris & Cassisi (2005) stellar evolution models; Bellazzini et al. (1999, 2004) metallicity sensitivity studies

vs_ea82e879001606e9

title:Salaris & Cassisi (2005) stellar evolution models; Bellazzini et al. (1999, 2004) metallicity sensitivity studies

2005manual_curation

inspect source →

Evidence atoms

1

vea_c45b96556be2259ctheoretical · unknown
Metallicity is the dominant source of systematic uncertainty in TRGB distance ladder: a ±0.2 dex error in mean [Fe/H] propagates to ±0.15–0.20 mag distance modulus error (~±7–10% in distance), nearly matching the current Hubble tension magnitude.
vs_ea82e879001606e9 · manual_curation

Typed links

3

outgoing

replicatesvf_f6a9ebb38c39e9a1
Metallicity systematic uncertainty magnitude (±7–10%) closely matches observed TRGB vs Cepheid tension

incoming

The Tip of the Red Giant Branch (TRGB) distance indicator relies on the observation that all metal-poor globular clusters reach a sharp luminosity cutoff at nearly identical absolute magnitude (M_V ≈ −4.0 ± 0.1) when they transition from the red giant branch to the asymptotic giant branch, providing a standardizable 'cosmic rung' for nearby galaxies.
depends · vf_b84cdcc718019d73
TRGB measurements by HST and subsequent ground-based surveys (H0LiCOW, SHOES, early-cycle HST) systematically favor lower H0 values (67–70 km/s/Mpc) relative to local Cepheid+SN Ia anchors, suggesting tension in the rungs connecting the late-universe ladder.
extends · vf_f6a9ebb38c39e9a1

Review, event, and evaluation records

2

events

vev_d75cada8ab0c44f8finding.asserted
Manual finding added to frontier state
reviewer:will-blair · 2026-05-29

reviewable changes

vpr_f93655b76c026268finding.add
Manual finding added to frontier state
applied · reviewer:will-blair · 2026-05-29

evaluations

No evaluation record targets this finding id.