Skip to content

canopusrecord engine body

field
frontiers
loop
body
docs

vela-science/vela

frontier

fusion-confinement-progress

graph

resultsread-only vieweressays

Search Canopus

Jump to a section, signal, campaign, document, primitive, work path, frontier, record index, atlas, constellation, agent, capability, or full-state search.

frontiers / frontier

Fusion confinement progress

CC-BY-4.0vfr_30ac47d7e1277ba8

id: vfr_30ac47d7e1277ba8
license: CC-BY-4.0
findings: 16
accepted core: 0
contested: 0

16

findings

17

links

16

sources

16

evidence

0

contested

0.90

avg conf

recordoverview state sources proofenginereviewbodygraph

Graph

The dependency graph over this frontier’s findings. Each edge is a typed link: one finding supporting, contradicting, or refining another. The graph is a reviewable view over accepted finding bundles, not a separate authority layer.

16

linked findings

17

links

4

link types

Finding graph

extends7supports5contradicts3depends2

Graph index contract

The graph view makes dependency structure visible while keeping accepted finding bundles as the durable objects.

derived view

Edges make relationships inspectable

Supports, contradicts, refines, and depends-on links help users navigate a frontier's review structure.

record state

Findings carry the statement and evidence

The graph points back to finding bundles. It should not replace source spans, provenance, or review history.

review path

Derived edges need provenance

Inferred or candidate links should route to review before they affect proof, trails, atlases, or constellations.

impact

Use graph paths to ask what changes

A changed source or finding can expose affected proof, dependent findings, and review radius.

1NIF conducted first-ever controlled fusion ignition with target gain Q…extendsNIF repeated fusion ignition in 2023-2024 with demonstrable gain impro…2
Repeated ignition shots demonstrate reproducibility; gain magnitude increasing with optimization · inferred by reviewer
1NIF conducted first-ever controlled fusion ignition with target gain Q…contradictsNIF's facility-level efficiency gap: generating 2.05 MJ laser input re…3
Target-level Q>1 achieved but facility-level Q<<1; decouples plasma physics gain from power plant viability · inferred by reviewer
2NIF repeated fusion ignition in 2023-2024 with demonstrable gain impro…supportsCommercial fusion requires Q≥30 for viability; net electricity require…4
NIF repeatability proves plasma Q>1 pathway; inertial approach distinct from MCF steady-state requirements · inferred by reviewer
5ITER tokamak targets Q≥10 (500 MW fusion power from 50 MW input) with …contradictsCommonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS) SPARC tokamak uses YBCO high-tempera…6
ITER Q≥10 target requires 17+ year wait (2039); SPARC projects Q≈11 by 2027, using HTS magnets for acceleration · inferred by reviewer
6Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS) SPARC tokamak uses YBCO high-tempera…extendsITER tokamak targets Q≥10 (500 MW fusion power from 50 MW input) with …5
HTS magnet breakthrough enables smaller Q≥10 designs (SPARC); validates faster path vs. ITER massive scale · inferred by reviewer
7Wendelstein 7-X stellarator set world record for long-duration triple …supportsStellarators possess inherent steady-state advantage: absence of plasm…8
W7-X steady-state triple product record validates stellarator long-duration advantage; absence of disruptions confirmed · inferred by reviewer
9Tokamaks (e.g., ITER design) face fundamental disruption risk: rapid t…dependsStellarators possess inherent steady-state advantage: absence of plasm…8
Tokamak disruption mitigation essential for ITER; stellarators bypass this entire failure mode · inferred by reviewer
8Stellarators possess inherent steady-state advantage: absence of plasm…extendsWendelstein 7-X stellarator set world record for long-duration triple …7
Stellarator steady-state architecture directly enabled W7-X 43 s record; structural advantage over tokamak pulse cycles · inferred by reviewer
3NIF's facility-level efficiency gap: generating 2.05 MJ laser input re…contradictsNIF conducted first-ever controlled fusion ignition with target gain Q…1
NIF's 300 MJ facility input vs. 2.05 MJ laser output reveals efficiency bottleneck; Q_target>1 ≠ Q_facility>1 · inferred by reviewer
10Tritium breeding blanket is critical unsolved engineering challenge: m…dependsCommercial fusion requires Q≥30 for viability; net electricity require…4
Tritium breeding must reach TBR>1.05; without it, even Q≥10 plasma cannot sustain continuous operation · inferred by reviewer
11Neutron irradiation of tungsten first-wall materials causes ductile-to…extendsTritium breeding blanket is critical unsolved engineering challenge: m…10
Tungsten embrittlement limits first-wall lifetime, constraining blanket design and TBR system engineering · inferred by reviewer
4Commercial fusion requires Q≥30 for viability; net electricity require…supportsITER tokamak targets Q≥10 (500 MW fusion power from 50 MW input) with …5
Q≥30 commercial requirement justifies ITER's Q≥10 intermediate goal and advanced divertor/blanket R&D · inferred by reviewer
12Private fusion funding reached $2.64 billion in 12 months to July 2025…extendsCommonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS) SPARC tokamak uses YBCO high-tempera…6
Private capital (Helion, TAE, others) accelerating HTS and compact tokamak timelines; venture-backed timeline pressure · inferred by reviewer
13JT-60SA tokamak (world's largest operating) upgraded since 2024 with n…supportsITER tokamak targets Q≥10 (500 MW fusion power from 50 MW input) with …5
JT-60SA physics support to ITER validates tokamak scaling pathways; OP2 experiments inform ITER design envelope · inferred by reviewer
14Magnetic confinement (tokamak + stellarator) and inertial confinement …extendsWendelstein 7-X stellarator set world record for long-duration triple …7
ICF (NIF) and MCF (tokamak/stellarator) remain parallel paths; neither yet demonstrates sustained commercial power · inferred by reviewer
15High-temperature superconductor (HTS) magnet technology via REBCO (rar…supportsCommonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS) SPARC tokamak uses YBCO high-tempera…6
HTS magnet maturity (>20 T) directly enables SPARC timeline and modular tokamak economics · inferred by reviewer
16Plasma control and disruption mitigation advances include real-time ve…extendsTokamaks (e.g., ITER design) face fundamental disruption risk: rapid t…9
Advanced control reduces disruption risk, but real-time prediction + mitigation still in flight-test phase (KSTAR→ITER) · inferred by reviewer